Kentucky’s health care system could feel the effects of growing elderly population
By: David A. Gross UK Center for Excellence in Rural Health
HINDMAN – During the course of his 21 years at the UK June Buch
anan Medical Clinic, Dr. Kenneth Slone has noticed a gradual increase in the proportion of elderly patients he treats – so much so that they now comprise over half of the clinic’s total patient volume.
With their elevated level of chronic health issues, Slone’s patients who are age 65 and over also occupy considerably more of his time – about twice as long per visit as younger patients, he said.
Slone’s situation is not unique. Across Kentucky and the nation, health care providers are feeling the initial impact of the burgeoning elderly population, one aspect of which is heightened utilization of health care services.
Health and policy analysts note, however, that the full effects might not be felt for another five years, when baby boomers have begun to reach age 65 en masse.
“I don’t think anybody’s system is ready for that,” Slone said. “It’s going to overwhelm our resources. Financially and otherwise, it’s going to be a real strain for health care in the future.”
Attributable to increased longevity (the average life expectancy is now 79 years for U.S. women and 74 years for men) and the aging of the baby boom generation (the approximately 80 million Americans born between 1946 and 1964), the size of the population segment aged 65 and above is expected to increase in all 50 states through 2025.
Kentucky already is one of the nation’s grayer states, as 12.5 percent of its population was age 65 or older at the time of the 2000 Census. It is projected to have the 14th-highest proportion of elderly residents by 2025, according to the Kentucky State Data Center. At that point, those who are 65 and older are expected to comprise 21.3 percent of the state’s population.
Further exacerbating the issue is the prediction that some regions of the state – presumably rural ones – are likely to have even higher concentrations of elderly residents. Such a scenario would track national trends; the Center for Health Workforce Studies at the University of Albany (N.Y.) has reported that senior citizens are more likely to live in rural areas (24 percent of older adults, compared to 19 percent of the total U.S. population).
